September 9, 2026 – Silicon metal prices held firm in the first week of September as production cuts in China's major silicon regions began to tighten spot supply, while demand from downstream sectors improved only modestly. The market remains near one-year lows, with the futures market consolidating below the RMB 9,000/MT psychological level.
Spot and Futures Prices (as of September 8, 2026)
SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) assessed oxygen-blown 553# silicon in east China at RMB 9,400–9,500/MT and 441# at RMB 9,500–9,700/MT on September 8, up about RMB 50/MT week-on-week. 3303# was assessed at RMB 10,100–10,200/MT.
On the futures market, the main Guangzhou Futures Exchange contract (2611) closed at RMB 8,880/MT on September 8, up 1.66% day-on-day. Prices have been trading in an RMB 8,000–9,000/MT range, with clear resistance near the RMB 9,000 level. The forward curve remains in contango, though the premium has narrowed, suggesting cautious expectations for further upside.
Supply: Output Cuts Take Effect
Production reductions announced by major silicon-producing regions - Xinjiang, Yunnan and Sichuan, which together account for roughly 70% of national capacity - have begun to materialize. Producers held quotes firm during the week, and traders in parts of northwest China strengthened spot–futures spreads slightly. Industry cost benchmarks sit at approximately RMB 8,600–9,200/MT by region, meaning current spot prices leave limited margin for further downside without additional cost support.
Demand: Modest Improvement
Downstream demand improved only slightly. Organic silicon output edged down, while secondary (recycled) aluminum alloy operating rates rebounded and primary aluminum alloy eased marginally. Buyers in the polysilicon sector continued to purchase on an as-needed basis, with several industry meetings on production discipline held over the past week. Overall, end users remain cautious, but the supply-demand balance is improving at the margin.
Export Perspective for Buyers
China remains the world's largest silicon metal producer and exporter. Customs data shows cumulative exports of 436,000 MT in the first seven months of 2026, up 5% year-on-year, with Japan, India and South Korea the top destinations. Export FOB China quotes were around USD 1,220–1,275/MT for 553#/441# in early September. For international buyers, current prices are attractive for locking quarterly volumes with a verified producer before the supply situation tightens further.
Outlook
With costs firm, output cuts delivering and demand stabilizing at the margin, we expect silicon metal prices to hold or edge higher over the coming weeks, with the RMB 9,000/MT level acting as the key resistance. A sustained move above it would require clearer demand recovery from the photovoltaic chain.
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